Article Summary –
The Republican presidential primary season is entering a phase where races will take place in several states, with the focus moving away from individual state campaigns. Donald Trump and Nikki Haley have been the only contenders in primary contests in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. However, Trump is expected to gain a significant advantage in the coming races, as per polls, and the “winner takes most” or “winner takes all” rules in many states will likely mean a rapid accumulation of delegates for him.
Republican Presidential Primary Season Turns National
The Republican presidential primary season, which has been a lengthy process for the past month and a half, is reaching a significant turning point. Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina have held caucuses or primaries featuring Donald Trump and Nikki Haley on the ballot, allowing for concentrated campaigning in each state.
Michigan Primary Marks Shift in Strategy
However, Tuesday’s Michigan primary sees a shift away from this approach. Neither candidate has been able to focus heavily on Michigan, indicating a change in how the GOP primary process will unfold as the campaign evolves to a national level over the coming weeks. This national expansion could be beneficial for the former president.
Trump Holds Significant Lead in Michigan
In terms of popular support, Trump far outstrips Haley in Michigan. Despite limited recent polling, a CNN/SSRS poll conducted at the end of last year showed him leading Haley with 72% to her 27% among likely GOP primary voters, a lead larger than in any previous nominating contests this primary season.
Haley Faces Time Crunch
Unlike in New Hampshire and South Carolina, Haley doesn’t have the luxury of time to bridge the gap in Michigan. With the primary happening imminently, her campaign efforts in the state have only been initiated in the past week.
National Primary Race Dynamics
Should Trump’s support in Michigan remain strong, it would mirror what we see on a national level. This is the first state on the primary calendar where Trump polls above 70% – mirroring his standings in national surveys of the Republican primary.
Haley’s inability to spend significant time in Michigan, just three days after the South Carolina primary, foreshadows the challenges ahead as the campaign goes national quickly and devoting time to individual states becomes troublesome.
Fast-paced Delegate Allocation
With just 6% of delegates allocated so far in the GOP primary, the race is about to speed up. After Super Tuesday on March 5, around 50% of delegates will have been allocated, jumping to about 56% two weeks from now and approximately 71% three weeks from now. Over two-thirds of all GOP delegates will be designated within the next three weeks.
Delegate Allocation Challenges for Haley
The delegate allocation model in most of the upcoming states could be detrimental for Haley. Unlike a strictly proportional allocation, most will be “winner-take-most” or “winner-take-all”. This means that if Trump wins by a significant margin, he’ll secure most, if not all, of the delegates. Trump’s recent 60% vote and 94% delegate win in South Carolina exemplify this.
Trump’s Delegate Lead
Given Trump’s 60-point lead over Haley in recent national polls of the Republican primary, it’s likely that he will quickly accrue delegates. State-level data highlights this, particularly in California and Texas, the biggest delegate prizes in Super Tuesday, where Trump leads Haley by about 40 points and 70 points respectively.
If polling trends hold, Trump could have a majority of delegates by March 12 or even more likely by March 19. This puts Haley under pressure to rapidly change her campaign strategy and reverse what’s expected to be a difficult national environment for her as the GOP primary advances nationally. If she fails to do so, Michigan could likely herald the beginning of the end of her campaign.
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