Article Summary
The assassination of a top Hamas leader in Lebanon and twin explosions in Iran have increased fears of a Middle East conflict widening. The US and 11 allies have warned Yemen’s Houthi militia, which has been launching near-daily attacks on commercial vessels, to cease their actions. The US has refrained from retaliating against Houthi bases in Yemen to avoid jeopardising a fragile truce in the country’s civil war. The explosions in Iran occurred at a memorial for the country’s former general, with the Islamic State being suggested as a potential perpetrator.
Escalating Middle East Tensions Threaten Regional War
Officials from America, Israel, and Lebanon maintain that few want Israel’s conflict in Gaza to expand into a Middle East-wide confrontation. Recent events, however, including the assassination of a top Hamas leader and twin explosions in Iran, are pushing the Middle East and the United States towards the brink of a regional war.
U.S. Tensions with Houthi Militia
Just hours after the Iran incident, the United States and 11 allies issued a written warning to the Yemeni Houthi militia, responsible for consistent regional attacks. Despite the U.S. refraining from retaliation against Houthi bases, patience from Biden officials seems to be waning.
Iran Supports Houthis amidst Growing Conflict
On Monday, Iran’s navy announced deployment of warships supporting the Houthis. Despite this, a senior Iranian official declared that Iran has no plans for naval confrontation with U.S. vessels. President Biden, likewise, hopes to avoid direct military attacks on the Houthis to prevent escalation.
Fears of a Wider War
Hezbollah has vowed retaliation for the assassination of the Hamas leader Saleh Al-Arouri. American officials, however, remain uncertain about whether these events could lead to a wider war. While Israel wouldn’t have targeted Al-Arouri without considering this, the risk of conflict spreading is a major concern for the United States and Europe.
U.S. Diplomatic Efforts and Escalation Concerns
Following the strike, Biden administration officials plan to increase diplomatic efforts with Lebanese officials to pressure Hezbollah not to escalate the conflict. In the coming days, Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken is expected to visit the Middle East with the goal of containing potential escalation.
Iranian Paramilitary Involvement
In recent weeks, the Biden administration declassified intelligence indicating that Iranian paramilitary groups were coordinating the Houthi attacks. In response, the United States has created a multinational naval task force to protect commercial ships in both the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden.
Future of Hamas Leadership
The loss of Al-Arouri, involved in both tactical operations and strategic diplomacy, presents a significant setback for Hamas, according to an analysis for the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. Western leaders have been urging restraint to prevent further escalation, particularly concerning Lebanon.
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