Article Summary –
The article discusses the possibility of a significant increase in voters of color supporting the Republican party. Data shows increased support from voters of color for Republican candidates, with approximately 37% of Latino Americans voting for Donald Trump in 2020 compared to 29% for Mitt Romney eight years prior. However, the author remains skeptical, suggesting the current trend may be a Biden-Trump paradigm rather than a broader realignment, and emphasizes that significant increases in Republican support among Black, Latino, and Asian voters would not necessarily entail a complete severing of race and voting patterns given ongoing economic and power disparities.
Is a Racial Realignment Happening in U.S. Politics?
The U.S. political landscape might be experiencing a significant shift as more voters of color are identifying as Republicans. Evidence of this trend was highlighted in a viral thread by John Burn-Murdoch of the Financial Times last week, showcasing charts of increased Republican support among racial minority voters.
This phenomenon is not going unnoticed. In the 2020 elections, the percentage of Latino Americans who voted for Donald Trump rose to around 37%, compared to 29% for Mitt Romney in 2012. Furthermore, twenty-five percent of Asian, Black, and Latino voters combined supported Trump in 2020, according to data from left-leaning firm Catalist. This was a marked increase from the 17% of voters of color who backed Romney in 2012.
In the 2022 congressional elections, Republican support among Asian Americans increased from 33% in 2020 to around 41%. As the 2024 race between Biden and Trump heats up, surveys are indicating potential further shifts among voters of color towards the Republican side.
If Trump manages to secure 21% of the Black vote, it would be a historic moment. Since exit polls began in 1972, the highest Black support for a Republican candidate was Richard M. Nixon’s 18% in the same year. Data from Gallup recently showed that 19% of Black Americans identified as Republicans in 2023, a significant increase from the 11% average from 1999 to 2022.
In a recent New York Times/Siena poll, 46% of Latinos supported Trump, compared to 43% for Biden. If Trump wins 20% of the Black vote and half of both the Asian and Latino vote, he could reach around 38% support among voters of color, doubling Romney’s 2012 figure.
However, these shifts in voting patterns among racial minority groups might not translate into a drastic change in the overall political landscape. Despite potential gains among racial minority groups, the Republican Party would still be winning only about 50% of the total national vote, as Black, Latino, and Asian Americans make up relatively small parts of the electorate. Biden and Trump are still very close in most polls of the 2024 race.
Moreover, the current link between racial-party coalitions and policy or material differences suggests that we may not see a complete disconnection of race and voting, particularly among Black and White Americans. This is due to substantial economic and power differences that align with racial categories.
Lastly, the current political paradigm might not be indicative of a broader Republican-Democratic shift, but could be a specific Biden-Trump dynamic. Perhaps Biden is less appealing to voters of color than other Democrats, or Trump is more appealing than previous Republican presidential candidates.
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