Article Summary –
Migration is expected to rise in the summer, further challenging the Biden administration’s handling of issues at the U.S.-Mexico border where there is an asylum case backlog of over three million. A bipartisan bill to address border security failed to pass, leaving the administration with no new resources. Meanwhile, soy production in Brazil faces threats from climate change and government carbon neutrality ambitions, but political resistance and the strength of the agribusiness lobby may keep production high.
Increased summer migration to impact US Politics
Immigration remains a crucial issue for voters ahead of the November US presidential election, with 28 percent of Americans marking it as the country’s most significant challenge. Despite the drop in arrivals at the US southern border in January and February 2024, officials anticipate an increase with the return of the seasonal summer migration. Factors likely to contribute to this include unrest in Cuba, near anarchy in Haiti, and increasing authoritarian repression in Venezuela, as well as the Biden administration’s struggle to address an asylum case backlog of over three million.
Failure of border security bill limits Biden’s options
The bipartisan bill aimed at providing $20 billion towards border security, including funds for 100 new judges and case workers, 4,300 new asylum officers, and nearly 3,000 new border enforcement personnel failed to pass Congress. This leaves the Biden administration without new tools to manage the immigration issue. Even with the existing humanitarian parole program and increased asylum claims screenings, the administration still struggles to manage the continuous smaller flows of migrants.
Brazil’s economic reliance on soy at risk
Generating nearly $70 billion in exports, Soy is a significant economic engine for Brazil, accounting for 40 percent of its total export revenue and nearly 20 percent of its GDP boost in 2023. Nevertheless, this key economic driver faces threats from climate change and the Brazilian government’s ambitions to curb its effects.
Climate change and government policies threaten soy production
El Niño-induced droughts and excess rainfall could reduce Brazil’s 2024 soy harvests by 5 percent. Furthermore, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s (Lula’s) goal to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, by limiting territory allocated to agribusiness could also impact soy production adversely.
Political influence may keep soy production high
Despite these threats, the strong influence of the agribusiness lobby may keep soy production buoyant. Alongside this, the government’s limited capacity to halt deforestation related to soy harvests is evident in the over 40 percent increase in deforestation in the Cerrado region during Lula’s first year in office.
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