Article Summary –
The primary season is escalating with multiple caucuses and primaries including Super Tuesday, where 15 states will cast their votes. Former President Donald Trump is expected to win most, if not all, of these contests, nearly securing the Republican nomination. Trump’s nomination could realistically be clinched on March 19, when several key states cast their ballots, however, his lack of verbal response to the Hamas invasion of Israel has been noted, reflecting his anti-interventionist shift within the Republican Party.
The Impending Primary Season Acceleration
With three caucuses and primaries this weekend, one on Monday, and Super Tuesday fast approaching, the primary season is about to kick into full speed. Polls indicate that former President Donald Trump will most likely win most, if not all, of these contests, bringing him closer to the Republican nomination.
Delegate Maths Explained
In a conversation with Nate Cohn, The New York Times’s chief political analyst, he detailed the delegate maths. A candidate must secure a majority of the 2,429 Republican National Convention delegates to become the party’s nominee. These delegates are typically awarded based on primary and caucus results in each state. However, the Republican rules allow states to decide how to award their delegates, which can be proportionally based on a candidate’s vote share or even allowing a single candidate to receive all delegates if they win statewide.
The Super Tuesday Scenario
Despite the impending Super Tuesday, Trump cannot clinch the nomination, as just under half of the delegates will have been awarded after this event. However, if the polls are accurate, Trump will be within easy striking distance of the nomination. With many states awarding all their delegates to the winner if they exceed 50% of the vote, Trump could win more than 90% of the available delegates on Super Tuesday.
The Timeline for Nomination
The soonest Trump could clinically secure the nomination is March 12, when Georgia, Hawaii, Mississippi, and Washington vote. However, realistically, Trump would likely clinch the nomination on March 19 when Arizona, Florida, Illinois, Kansas, and Ohio cast their ballots.
Trump’s Response to Gaza
Trump has been noticeably silent on the subject of the Hamas terrorists’ invasion of Israel on Oct. 7. He briefly criticised Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, but has largely adopted a laissez-faire approach to the Middle East conflict. Trump attributes the conflict to Biden’s “weakness,” blaming the crisis on his presidency.
Implications on the Republican Party
Trump’s hands-off approach demonstrates the anti-interventionist shift he has brought about in the Republican Party over the past eight years. It is noteworthy that the party’s standard-bearer would have so little to say about a major terrorist attack against Israel in the middle of a presidential campaign.
Trump’s Strategy to Win Over Biden
Among Trump allies, there is little urgency for Trump to put out more detailed foreign policy plans. Instead, they plan to exploit divisions over Israel in the Democratic Party to their advantage, considering advertisements in heavily Muslim areas of Michigan that would thank Biden for “standing with Israel”.
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